This way comes

Since the end of World War II, Europe has relied on the United States for security. After Soviet communism collapsed in the 1990s, both the U.S. and its European NATO allies reduced defense spending—but not the allies’ fundamental dependence on American forces.

When Russia invaded Ukraine’s Donbas region and annexed Crimea in 2014, NATO’s 32 member states agreed to raise their defense budgets to 2 percent of each country’s GDP. But in 2023, only 11 had met that target—and Washington was way out ahead of anyone else.

Meanwhile, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 delivered an enormous shock to NATO’s system. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the invasion marked a historic turning point that forced his country to revisit its post-WWII aversion to building up military power. Now this year, 23 NATO members will hit that 2 percent spending target.

Still, European militaries aren’t especially imposing. Ukraine has more than 500,000 active-duty troops, and it’s lost about 31,000 in the war. The U.K. and France have NATO’s biggest armies, but neither would be able even to mobilize 31,000 soldiers in a month. And military analysts have widely expressed serious doubts about the combat-readiness of European militaries and the quality of their equipment. Just how capable are Europe’s armies?

John R. Deni is a research professor of joint interagency, intergovernmental, and multinational security studies at the U.S. Army College’s Strategic Studies Institute—and the author of Coalition of the Unwilling and Unable: European Realignment and the Future of American Geopolitics. Deni says that while European countries see Russia as a serious security threat today—and those closest to Russia see the threat most urgently—their efforts to transform their defense capabilities are running into complicated problems: They can’t attract enough new soldiers; some of their weapons don’t work; and sometimes their weapons just won’t work in other NATO countries’ systems. And yet, Deni says, the biggest challenge is money …

Michael Bluhm: Since Russia’s invasion, nearly all European countries have increased their spending on defense. What kind of difference would you say it’s made?