Vladimir Putin calls a friend. North Korea has now sent 3,000 soldiers to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, per the U.S. defense secretary on October 23. U.S. intelligence officials say they’ll release satellite photos showing troop ships transporting North Korean soldiers to the Russian port of Vladivostok.

Meanwhile, South Korean intelligence agencies have told their country’s lawmakers that the North plans to send 10,000 soldiers—and has been training a contingent of this size since September. North Korea and Russia deny the claims.

If true, however, the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia would be a remarkable sign of the strengthening ties among four of the world’s most powerful autocracies—North Korea and Russia, along with China and Iran. North Korea has already sent Moscow millions of artillery shells for the Ukraine war, while Iran has sent some 200 ballistic missiles—having already been working with the Russian military in Syria since 2015. As the war in the Middle East widens to include Iran, Beijing has said it stands with Tehran. What’s going on with all of this?

Recently at The Signal, Lucan Way explored the forces bringing these countries together. Way says the appearance of a tighter alliance among these autocracies is mostly driven by Moscow and its war needs. And while it’s true that the countries do share an interest in undermining U.S. power globally where they can, they otherwise have little in common—making it unclear just how close this partnership will stay after the war ends.

—Michael Bluhm

The bill comes due in Tehran. The war in the Middle East just passed the one-year mark, but now it looks like a whole new war. After 12 months of bombing in Gaza and driving a ground offensive to its border with Egypt—in response to the Hamas attack of October 2023—Israel has now taken the fight to Hezbollah—the militia allied with Hamas and most powerful political party in Lebanon.

In the last month, Israel has blown up the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies, assassinated its longtime leader, invaded Lebanon, and stepped up bombing raids on south Beirut and other Hezbollah bases. Meanwhile, the U.S. bombed Yemen, aiming for suspected weapons stores of the Houthis, another Hamas ally.

Together, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis share the same main source of funds and weapons: Iran. And now, Iran is getting directly engaged in the conflict, itself—after launching 180 or so ballistic missiles at Israel, though Israel intercepted them. What exactly is Iran doing here?

Today, Alex Vatanka looks Iranian strategy in the Middle East—and the momentous decision the Iranian regime is facing on whether to keep attacking and undermining Israel or to compromise and keep itself in power.

—Michael Bluhm

111 MHz: ‘Yourcelium.’ James McKeown, who records as Hawksmoor is a modular synth player and composer from Bristol, U.K.—here, on his new album Oneironautics, reaching an almost Tangerine Dream level of orbit.

—Brendan Hasenstab

5 W Main: The Starmer Project. This month, the British press has been taking stock of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership to mark his first 100 days in office. The reviews have not been overwhelmingly positive. But Starmer’s camp may be troubled less by the views of British newspaper columnists than by those of the British people—among whom Starmer’s popularity has plummeted. He’s now even less liked than the Reform Party leader, Nigel Farage.

Yet Starmer won the election in a landslide. What’s happened since?

A number of explanations are already in circulation:

• Despite the landslide, Starmer was never popular. After fourteen years in power, voters were simply tired of having a Tory in 10 Downing Street, and Rishi Sunak ran his campaign as though he too were tired of it.
• The right-wing vote was split by the Reform Party, meaning Labour got only one-third of the votes but two-thirds of the seats—making it the highest seat-to-vote ratio of any Labour victory ever.
• Starmer has taken several hits since winning. He had to force the Downing Street chief of staff to resign following internal squabbles. The press revealed that his backers had given him more than £100,000 in freebies, including expensive suits. He suspended a few arms export licenses to Israel, irritating its supporters without satisfying its critics. And this summer, racist rioters looking to beat up immigrants overran several British towns: The police charged several hundreds of them, but Britain’s prisons were so overcrowded that Starmer then had to release prisoners early to clear space. Whatever the merits of that decision, it wasn’t the PR Starmer wanted.

Beneath all of this, however, is the reality Starmer has never endeared himself to the left wing of the Labour Party. It’s a reality Oliver Eagleton explores in The Starmer Project: A Journey to the Right. Published in 2022, the book makes the case that Starmer’s once-professed leftist convictions had always been more for public consumption than sincere. And the early days of his premiership may back the argument up.

In his first speech as prime minister, Starmer said the U.K. had “voted decisively for change.” Yet he’s retained the Conservatives’ cap on welfare payments to families with more than two children. He’s restricted winter fuel payments, leaving only the very poorest pensioners still eligible for the benefit. And last week, the Financial Times reported that Labour is looking to keep the Tories’ plan to slash £1.3 billion worth of sickness benefits. That’s a lot of continuity.

—Gustav Jönsson

Living in a world of storms. Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in the Southeastern United States in late September, killed more than 230 people. Two weeks later, it was Milton—which intensified so fast in the Gulf that Florida officials were forced to order millions to evacuate their homes with almost no notice. Hurricanes are becoming more powerful, more rapidly. How are these changes affecting American life?

Today, Andy Horowitz looks at how increasingly out-of-phase U.S. policies and planning are with environmental reality.

—Gustav Jönsson

111 MHz: ‘Enthropist.’ How about seven minutes of drone jazz from Norway? Splashgirl is a three-piece—piano, double bass, and drums. Here, they work with Robert Aiki Aubrey Lowe, a free-jazz keyboard whiz and composer. It might sound like the perfect soundtrack for a spy-movie car chase in the rain.

—Brendan Hasenstab

Race beneath the Earth. As Hurricane Milton threatened heavily populated areas of Florida in early October, U.S. President Joe Biden postponed a planned trip to Angola until December. It will be Biden’s first (and last) visit to Africa as president. Last year, Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to neighboring Zambia, while the U.S. plans to make its largest railroad investment in Africa ever: a line connecting Angola’s Atlantic coast to Zambia’s central rail line.

But the Americans aren’t the only global superpower building railroads in sub-Saharan Africa these days: China has pledged billions to build a new rail line linking Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast with Zambia’s central line. Why are the world’s two biggest powers doing this—and why are they doing it here?

Minerals.

The new railways will give Washington and Beijing access to 70 percent of the world’s cobalt and 12 percent of the copper, along with enormous reserves of lithium, nickel, manganese, and chromium. These are all elements that go into critical military and computing technologies, including the semiconductor chips in cellphones and most home appliances.

Last year, Nicholas Kumleben explored why these minerals were now one of the few areas of competition where China had a distinct advantage over the U.S., as Washington scrambles to build a supply chain for them outside Beijing’s reach.

—Michael Bluhm

Friends like these. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, don’t usually issue news releases about the deals they make—but it seems they’ve been making more and more of them. Western intelligence officials said in September that Iran had sent about 200 ballistic missiles to Russia. They worried that in return, Moscow might be ready to share secrets for making a nuclear bomb with Tehran. Iran has also provided the Kremlin with thousands of drones for the war in Ukraine.

These deals belong to a pattern of closer ties among Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea: North Korea has given Russia more than a million artillery shells; Russia reportedly built a drone factory in China; and China now says it supports Iran in the widening conflict in the Middle East. What’s happening here? Today, Lucan Way looks at how the increasing collaboration among the world’s most powerful autocracies is grounded in Russia’s war on Ukraine—and at what this collaboration means for the world’s democracies.

—Michael Bluhm