Notes

The non-ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. On September 1, the Israeli military found the bodies of six hostages in tunnels under the Gaza Strip. Hamas had recently shot each of them multiple times—almost a year after capturing them during the October 7 attack, in which the group killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took more than 250 others prisoner.

Since the discovery, there’s been massive pressure on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach an agreement with Hamas to secure the return of the remaining hostages. The day after the bodies were found, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in Israel, for a general strike called by the country’s largest trade union, to protest the Netanyahu government’s failure to get the hostages back—despite months of negotiations.

Israel’s political elites have also publicly pushed Netanyahu to make a deal. Israel’s military commanders, meanwhile, have said for some time that they have largely finished their operations in Gaza, as ordered by the cabinet.

Hamas, too, is under pressure to stop the fighting—from Palestinians, tens of thousands of whom (more than 40,000, according Gaza Health Ministry) have been killed in Israeli strikes with much of the Gaza Strip now in ruins. Hamas itself has lost most of its troops.

So why haven’t the two sides come to an agreement?

Media reports say there are critical sticking points in the talks—above all, on the future presence of Israeli troops in Gaza and on the role of Hamas in running it. But this is a conflict with major geopolitical stakes. And as can be the case with such a conflict, the direct combatants aren’t the only parties to the talks.

The United States, Egypt, and Qatar have long been mediating these negotiations, and the upcoming U.S. presidential elections appear to be a key consideration. The American administration has strong political reasons to reach a ceasefire soon: A deal could help the election prospects of Vice President Kamala Harris—as bringing hostages back would play well among many voters who support Israel, while stopping the fighting would do likewise among those who support Palestine.

The elections could also factor into Netanyahu’s calculations, though, as he’s had far better relations in recent years with Republicans than Democrats—and he might well imagine he’ll get a deal more to his liking later, if Donald Trump wins in November. It’s not clear, meanwhile, what Egypt and Qatar are saying to Hamas.

—Michael Bluhm