Notes

Who votes in America? It’s election season in the United States, and American journalists are once again putting a lot of effort into predicting which candidate will win. It’s a tough game. Time and again, highly certain forecasts have proved ultimately wrong, on account of unexpected shifts in turnout—that is, shifts in who actually shows up to cast ballots. In tight elections, even small shifts can swing the whole thing; and in all elections, you never entirely know who’s going to vote until they do. So what can we know about voter turnout in the U.S. at all? Today, Jan Leighley explores the question.

—Gustav Jönsson